David Molner and David Bergstein are two of the smartest people in the business. Unfortunately, as has been proven many times over, the smartest guys in the room can make the worst decisions; and those decisions usually rely too much on smarts and not enough on judgement. The smarts recognized the potential for profits -- but the judgement knew the risk was too great.
It is nothing short of mind numbing how much email flies around during film closings. Executive teams representing senior banks, mezz lenders, tax credit lenders, equity financiers, bond companies, producers, and talent, along with their in-house and out-house lawyer teams and other reps have taken email’s “Reply to All” to unimagined and unmanageable extremes, but Google may have the answer...
I have this theory that film financing follows real estate: as goes real estate, so goes film. This is nothing I can quantify with statistics; it's a gut feeling, solidified over time, observational, not empirical. And, hear me out, what's got me thinking we may be seeing more film investing is an increase in the sale of U.S. Treasury bonds.
Indie producers are on a relentless quest to find the elusive "final 20%" of their budgets. They've raised the equity, made the presales, maxed the gap, and still they come up 20% short. Even with a whopping 40% cash rebate! So why then are they still stumbling around trying to fill that final 20% of their budgets?! Because producers can't get out of their own way.
Somebody in Springfield must follow my blog, because it appears they're going to update the film incentive to include non-resident cast.