David Molner and David Bergstein are two of the smartest people in the business. Unfortunately, as has been proven many times over, the smartest guys in the room can make the worst decisions; and those decisions usually rely too much on smarts and not enough on judgement. The smarts recognized the potential for profits -- but the judgement knew the risk was too great.
It may surprise Chicagoans to hear, but Movie Studios don’t care about the Illinois tax incentive. In general, the only studio films that come to Illinois are those that have already established themselves with the "Cheaper than New York to film" Chicago look, like 'The Dark Knight', or those films that actually need Chicago, ‘Public Enemies’...
Indie producers are on a relentless quest to find the elusive "final 20%" of their budgets. They've raised the equity, made the presales, maxed the gap, and still they come up 20% short. Even with a whopping 40% cash rebate! So why then are they still stumbling around trying to fill that final 20% of their budgets?! Because producers can't get out of their own way.
A week dollar is great for US producers looking to secure foreign pre-sale contracts, but it can also work against US producers looking to shoot abroad.